This is a really fascinating piece of work, especially in how it challenges the lazy reading of long balls as “direct” or low-control football. Re-centering the analysis on second-ball retention feels like a much better way to think about territory, pressure, and momentum.
I also like the honesty around uncertainty. Rather than pretending chaos can be fully modelled, you acknowledge it, quantify it, and then show where teams consistently outperform it.
Thank you Paul! I think in general we should factor in "luck" or "uncertainty" more in our models, because football is often incredibly dynamic and chaotic, which can't be controlled.
This is a really fascinating piece of work, especially in how it challenges the lazy reading of long balls as “direct” or low-control football. Re-centering the analysis on second-ball retention feels like a much better way to think about territory, pressure, and momentum.
I also like the honesty around uncertainty. Rather than pretending chaos can be fully modelled, you acknowledge it, quantify it, and then show where teams consistently outperform it.
Thank you Paul! I think in general we should factor in "luck" or "uncertainty" more in our models, because football is often incredibly dynamic and chaotic, which can't be controlled.